The Influence of Inflation and Economic Inequality in Increasing the Crime of Theft (Copula Approach)

Document Type : Scientific research

Authors

• Saeed Kian Poor ¹
• Amir Ali Farhang ¹
• Mohsen Hajian ²

¹ Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Payame Noor University (PNU), Tehran, Iran

² MA Student, Department of Economics, Payame Noor University (PNU), Tehran, Iran

10.22067/economlaw.2024.84999.1323

Abstract

Iran is a country that has experienced an increase in the inflation rate and the Gini coefficient in recent years, leading to the subsequent economic and social repercussions. Theft crime is considered one of the types of social crimes and is seen as a major factor in reducing social welfare. In recent years, theft has increased in Iran, resulting in social crises. This research aims to investigate and analyze the important economic factors contributing to the increase in theft crime in Iran (inflation rate and Gini coefficient) during the years 2012-2023, using the novel Copula approach. The Nash equilibrium with an approximate value of 0.9307 indicates the proportionality between Copula-Marshal-Olkin and the data, while the Nash equilibrium of the Gini coefficient and theft crime with an approximate value of 0.9032 signifies the adherence of Copula-Fisher-Hinzman to the data. The results and findings of the research confirm the influential role of inflation and economic inequality in the increase of theft crime. Therefore, policymakers must pay attention to and implement measures to combat the rise in inflation and economic inequality; because with the reduction of inflation and economic inequality, it will be possible to reduce the crime of theft.

Keywords

• Social Crimes
• Property Crimes
• Gini Coefficient
• Inflation
• Copula

References

• Aama Bandeh Gharaei H, Seyedi S M, mokhtaritorshizi H, Salehnia N. (2023). The Impact of Unemployment, Inflation, and Participation Rate of Women in Labor Market on Divorce Process in Iran. refahj. 23(89), 9-44. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.32598/refahj.23.89.4245.1
• Abrishami, H., & Rezaei, Z. (2015). The Investigation of Emprical Effect of Inflation on Crime in Iran. Majlis and Rahbord, 22(83), 41-74. (In Persian).
• Adekoya, A. F., & Abdul Razak, N. A. (2016). Inflation, deterrence and crime: Evidence from Nigeria using bounds test approach. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 7(18), 23-32.
• Afrasiabi, H., & Baharluoei, M. (2020). The Consequences of the Inflation in Everyday Life of Low Class Youths. Journal of Applied Sociology, 31(4), 23-44. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.22108/jas.2020.118863.1771
• Ahad, M. (2016). Nexus between income inequality, crime, inflation and poverty: New evidence from structural breaks for Pakistan.
• Alla, L. (2019). The effect of inflation on welfare of the population and Russian market capacity. In SHS Web of Conferences (Vol. 69, p. 00071). EDP Sciences.‏ https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20196900071
• Ansari Samani, H., & Rouzbahani, M. (2020). Economic Justice and Social Crimes; Some Evidence from Iran's Provinces. Journal Of Economics and Regional Development, 26(18), 1-18. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.22067/erd.v26i17.67307
• Arabmazar, A., & NazariGovar, S. (2012). The effect of inflation uncertainty on private investment in Iran. Journal of Iran's Economic Essays (JIEE), 9(18), 59-76. (In Persian).
• Ashrafi S, Behbudi D, Vaez Mahdavi M R, Panahi H. (2019). The Triangular Relationship between Poverty, Inequality and Growth in Iran during the Development Plans. refahj. 18(71), 9-44. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.29252/refahj.18.71.1
• Baloch, M. A., Khan, S. U. D., Ulucak, Z. Ş., & Ahmad, A. (2020). Analyzing the relationship between poverty, income inequality, and CO2 emission in Sub-Saharan African countries. Science of the Total Environment, 740, 139867. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139867
• Bruton, G., Sutter, C., & Lenz, A. K. (2021). Economic inequality–Is entrepreneurship the cause or the solution? A review and research agenda for emerging economies. Journal of Business Venturing, 36(3), 106095. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2021.106095
• Bučar Ručman, A. (2019). What is crime? A search for an answer encompassing civilisational legitimacy and social harm. Crime, Law and Social Change, 72(2), 211-226. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10611-019-09812-1
• Central Bank of Iran (2023), Inflation rate and price index of consumer goods and services, access at: https://www.cbi.ir/Inflation/Inflation_FA.aspx
• Cohen, M. A. (2020). The costs of crime and justice. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429431562
• Dadgar, Y., Menatnejad, S., & Nazari, R. (2022). Analyzing the Impact of Economic and Climate Factors on Crime in Iran. Iranian Economic Review, 26(4), 809-818.
• De Gregorio, J. (2021). The effects of inflation on economic growth: Lessons from Latin America. In The Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth: Lessons from Latin America: de Gregorio, Jose. [Sl]: SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.885073
• Farrall, S., Gray, E., & Mike Jones, P. (2020). Politics, Social and Economic Change, and Crime: Exploring the Impact of Contextual Effects on Offending Trajectories. Politics & Society, 48(3), 357–388. https://doi.org/10.1177/0032329220942395
• Fattahi, S., & Kian poor, S. (2020). The Dependence of Returns in Stock Exchange Returns and Gold Markets with Spread of Covid-19 Virus in Iran: The Copula Functions Approach. Journal of Economics and Modeling, 11(2), 181-221. https://doi.org/10.29252/jem.2021.185233.1493
• Fischer, P. A., Martin, R., & Straubhaar, T. (2021). Should I stay or should I go?. In International migration, immobility and development (pp. 49-90). Routledge.‏ https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003136125-3
• Gillani, S. Y. M., Rehman, H. U., & Gill, A. R. (2009). Unemployment, poverty, inflation and crime nexus: Cointegration and causality analysis of Pakistan. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 79-98.
• Goldberg G. S. (2012). Economic inequality and economic crisis: a challenge for social workers. Social work, 57(3), 211–224. https://doi.org/10.1093/sw/sws005
• Huynh, T. L. D., Nasir, M. A., Nguyen, S. P., & Duong, D. (2020). An assessment of contagion risks in the banking system using non-parametric and Copula approaches. Economic Analysis and Policy, 65, 105-116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2019.11.007
• Ikhsan, I., & Amri, A. (2023). Exploration of macroeconomic effects on criminality in Indonesia. Cogent Social Sciences, 9(1), 2206678. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2023.2206678
• Jonathan, O. E., Olusola, A. J., Bernadin, T. C. A., & Inoussa, T. M. (2021). Impacts of crime on socio-economic development. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 12(5), 71. https://doi.org/10.36941/mjss-2021-0045
• Kim, J. M. (2020). A review of copula methods for measuring uncertainty in finance and economics. Quantitative Bio-Science, 39(2), 81-90.
• Kuzmenko, V., Salam, R., & Uryasev, S. (2020). Checkerboard copula defined by sums of random variables. Dependence Modeling, 8(1), 70-92. https://doi.org/10.1515/demo-2020-0004
• Liu, F., Wang, X., Chang, Y., Xu, Y., Zheng, Y., Sun, N., & Li, W. (2023). Multivariate Drought Risk Analysis for the Weihe River: Comparison between Parametric and Nonparametric Copula Methods. Water, 15(18), 3283. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15183283
• Lotfi, A., Feizpoor, M., Yari, M., Satarrostami, M., & Mirzaei, S. (2016). Investigating the effect of socio-economic variables on crime in the country, the approach of mixed data technique (case study of robbery and murder). Quarterly Journal of Police Management Studies, 11(3), 415-440. (In Persian).
• Maddah, M. (2011). Analysis Effect of Poverty and Inequality Income on Crime(Theft) Among the Provinces all over the Country. Economics Research, 11(42), 303-323. (In Persian).
• Minyi, L., & Delladona, A. (2022). Economic Inequality, Demographics and Violent Crime: A Cross-National Panel Analysis of Homicide Rates, 2010-18.
• Muhammed, H. Z., El-Sherpieny, E. S. A., & Almetwally, E. M. (2021). Dependency measures for new bivariate models based on copula function. Information Sciences Letters, 10(3), 15. https://doi.org/10.19139/soic-2310-5070-1129
• Nazeri Tahroudi, M., Ramezani, Y., De Michele, C., & Mirabbasi, R. (2021). Flood routing via a copula-based approach. Hydrology Research, 52(6), 1294-1308. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2021.008
• Nguyen, T. T., Nguyen, V. C., & Tran, T. N. (2020). Oil price shocks against stock return of oil-and gas-related firms in the economic depression: A new evidence from a copula approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 8(1), 1799908. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2020.1799908
• Nunley, J. M., Stern, M. L., Seals, R. A., & Zietz, J. (2016). The impact of inflation on property crime. Contemporary Economic Policy, 34(3), 483-499. https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.12156
• Rahmani Khalili, E. (2022). Explaining social happiness with an emphasis on income inequality and the role of mediation in life satisfaction. Journal of Iranian Social Development Studies, 14(55), 305-319. (In Persian). https://doi.org/10.30495/jisds.2022.68751.11773
• Rennó Santos, M., Testa, A., & Weiss, D. B. (2021). Inflation and Cross-National Homicide: Assessing Nonlinear and Moderation Effects Across 65 Countries, 1965–2015. International Criminal Justice Review, 31(2), 122–139. https://doi.org/10.1177/1057567720981624
• Rosenfeld, R., Vogel, M., & McCuddy, T. (2019). Crime and inflation in US cities. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 35, 195-210. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-018-9377-x
• Rosenfeld, R., & Vogel, M. (2023). Homicide, Acquisitive Crime, and Inflation: A City-Level Longitudinal Analysis. Crime & Delinquency, 69(1), 3–33. https://doi.org/10.1177/00111287211039994
• Soleimanimagham Y, Nademi Y, chegeni M. The Effect of Misery Index on the Rate of Crime in the Provinces of Iran. jemr 2020; 11(42),157-186. (In Persian). http://dx.doi.org/10.52547/jemr.11.42.157
• Statistical Center of Iran. (2021). National Statistical Yearbook, Chapter 15, 547-560. (In Persian).
• Sugiharti, L., Purwono, R., Esquivias, M. A., & Rohmawati, H. (2023). The nexus between crime rates, poverty, and income inequality: A case study of Indonesia. Economies, 11(2), 62. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11020062
• Trabelsi, N., Tiwari, A. K., Hammoudeh, S., & Benlagha, N. (2023). Extreme linkages of carbon futures, energy markets, and economic indicators: A copula approach. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 18(1), 2165738. https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2023.2165738
• Webster, C. (2023). Poor Crime: Economic, Welfare and Policy Cycles. In Rich Crime, Poor Crime: Inequality and the Rule of Law (pp. 187-204). Emerald Publishing Limited. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83909-822-220230009
• Yahyavi Dizaj J, Mohammadzadeh Y, Hekmati S, Yakobi F H. (2018). The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Crime in Selected Countries with a Dynamic Panel Approach. refahj. 18(68), 167-199. (In Persian).

Zhang, L., Wang, Y., Chen, Y., Bai, Y., & Zhang, Q. (2020). Drought risk assessment in Central Asia using a probabilisti