توسعه مدلی جهت پیش بینی زمان اطاله دادرسی با روش شبکه عصبی مصنوعی و الگوریتم قاعده مندسازی بیزین: شواهدی از پرونده های کانون وکلای دادگستری اردبیل

نوع مقاله : علمی پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار، گروه حقوق، واحد بیله سوار، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، بیله سوار، ایران.

چکیده
تأخیر در رسیدگی قضایی می‌تواند رفتارهای اقتصادی را مختل کند؛ با این حال، اثر نظام قضایی کارآمد بر حل‌وفصل به‌موقع دعاوی در کشورهای دارای سیستم حقوق مدنی کمتر بررسی شده است. این پژوهش با هدف پیش‌بینی زمان اطاله دادرسی و احتمال نقض آرای دادگاه بدوی، از داده‌های ۲۱۰ پرونده حقوقی در استان اردبیل طی سال‌های ۱۳۹۳ تا ۱۴۰۳ بهره گرفته است. داده‌ها به روش نمونه‌گیری غیراحتمالی در دسترس گردآوری شدند. در ادامه، مدل برلمان و کریستمن (2017) با رویکرد شبکه عصبی مصنوعی و الگوریتم قاعده مندسازی بیزین آزمون شد. برای توسعه مدل، شش مؤلفه ساختاری-کارکردی با مرور ادبیات شامل: دادرسی الکترونیکی، منابع انسانی، ساختار مقررات، فرآیند رسیدگی، زیرساخت قضایی و نقش نهادهای دولتی و غیردولتی شناسایی شد. درجه اهمیت این مؤلفه‌ها با استفاده از پرسشنامه‌ بر مبنای طیف لیکرت پنج‌درجه‌ای از خواهان پرونده‌های انتخابی نظرسنجی گردید. دقت پیش‌بینی مدل اصلی 99/89٪ و مدل بومی‌شده ۹۴٪ برآورد گردید. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهند که ویژگی‌های ماهوی پرونده و طرفین، استنادات حقوقی و مؤلفه‌های ساختاری-کارکردی تأثیر معناداری در کاهش زمان رسیدگی و احتمال نقض آرا دارند. مدل پیشنهادی در مقایسه با مدل اولیه، عملکرد دقیق‌تری در پیش‌بینی اطاله دادرسی ارائه می‌دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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